电力系统高压开关设备的可靠性提升与寿命评估方法

Reliability Enhancement and Life Assessment Method for High Voltage Switchgear in Power System

  • 摘要: 针对城网高短路容量与重合闸频发背景下,高压开关设备可靠性不足与寿命评估不准确的现实痛点,文章提出由多物理场耦合优化、全生命周期贝叶斯寿命评估与分级状态预警构成的一体化方法。设计端建立电热力耦合模型以关联触头温升、接触磨损与绝缘裕度,给出Cu–W替代与散热鳍片协同方案;评估端以出厂试验、在线监测与检修记录构建退化隐变量网络,实现滚动剩余寿命推断与维护干预的先验重置;运维端形成滞回阈值的预防性维护策略并闭环回灌。在3座220 kV变电站10台SF6断路器的应用表明,非计划停运次数由3次/a降至0.5次/a,平均维护成本由40万元/台·a降至30万元/台·a,剩余寿命预测准确率由80%提升至92%,验证了方案在可靠性、经济性与可实施性方面的综合效益。

     

    Abstract: In response to the practical problems of insufficient reliability of high-voltage switchgear and inaccurate life assessment under the background of high short-circuit capacity and frequent reclosing operations in urban power grids, this article proposes an integrated method consisting of multi-physical field coupling optimization, full life cycle Bayesian life assessment, and graded status warning. At the design end, an electro-thermal coupling model is established to correlate contact temperature rise, contact wear, and insulation margin, and a Cu-W substitution and heat dissipation fin scheme are provided; at assessment end, a degradation latent variable network is constructed based on factory tests, online monitoring, and maintenance records to achieve predictive rolling remaining life estimation and prior reset of maintenance intervention; at operation end, a preventive maintenance strategy with hysteresis threshold is formed and closed-loop feedback is implemented. The application of method in 10 SF6 circuit breakers of 3 220 kV substations shows that the unplanned outage frequency has decreased from 3 times per year to 0.5 times per year, average maintenance cost has dropped from 400,000 yuan per unit per year to 300,000 yuan per unit per year, and the accuracy of remaining life prediction has increased from 80% to 92%, verifying comprehensive benefits of scheme in terms of reliability, economy, and implementability.

     

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